Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 4.159962 4.879990 5.676549 6.621595 7.710638 8.924640 10.378849
2025-09-14 3.001129 3.953006 5.120567 6.650904 8.595999 10.977154 14.103541
2025-09-21 2.283553 3.317619 4.700665 6.669156 9.379180 12.956042 18.007121
2025-09-28 1.805076 2.854996 4.367722 6.676978 10.076606 14.852797 22.013384
2025-10-05 1.613334 2.742156 4.473629 7.275621 11.635147 18.080428 28.223276
2025-10-12 1.387705 2.521734 4.364656 7.510575 12.656960 20.622868 33.713537
2025-10-19 1.210767 2.339967 4.274749 7.741665 13.675455 23.245150 39.588818
2025-10-26 1.037204 2.126387 4.089093 7.771213 14.346618 25.365056 44.867189
2025-11-02 0.860519 1.869957 3.781210 7.530813 14.507510 26.636915 48.851412
2025-11-09 0.702051 1.615896 3.432273 7.154615 14.361712 27.343793 51.910623
2025-11-16 0.599165 1.454800 3.233587 7.027905 14.646019 28.816991 56.437709
2025-11-23 0.519059 1.326526 3.078587 6.960499 15.025645 30.487113 61.465169
2025-11-30 0.476225 1.277364 3.087030 7.241339 16.151074 33.714186 69.807314
2025-12-07 0.420326 1.185788 2.988603 7.281574 16.794099 36.086988 76.772398
2025-12-14 0.371108 1.100283 2.889358 7.304376 17.401594 38.450360 83.953785
2025-12-21 0.328020 1.021202 2.791364 7.313922 17.978242 40.804571 91.339114
2025-12-28 0.323543 1.047308 2.955268 7.965502 20.067641 46.513959 106.161820
2026-01-04 0.299346 1.011775 2.956913 8.221139 21.276156 50.456526 117.614679
2026-01-11 0.277338 0.977882 2.957081 8.472440 22.502548 54.551249 129.754419
2026-01-18 0.249068 0.918094 2.877022 8.504581 23.202325 57.537561 139.729331
2026-01-25 0.214148 0.828255 2.696934 8.243218 23.141615 58.784888 145.929548
2026-02-01 0.179633 0.730641 2.475925 7.834103 22.650626 58.976395 149.731657
2026-02-08 0.157594 0.671092 2.357758 7.696277 22.847599 60.815934 157.520990